Expectations

Young team returns in 2018-2019 with tons of promise. Can they get back to the NCAA Tournament?
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TMH
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Expectations

Post by TMH » Sat Dec 26, 2020 11:31 am

The beginning of the winter season (and all Lehigh Athletics) is only 1 week away. I've been trying to figure out where our expectations should be by listening to podcasts or reading articles on each of the sports. Pretty much across the board, coaches are setting the bar pretty low with regard to how we will perform.

The five week shutdown earlier due to a Covid outbreak apparently really affected conditioning and training. Regulations have impacted how we prepare for the season and with regard to basketball, the teams were going to be quite young with big, impactful freshman classes.

My rooting interest will always be there but I think I will be watching with an eye to the future more than the present. I have no idea how Covid has impacted other programs so maybe there is an equalizing impact but for now, I'm taking the bait and keeping my expectations low and focusing on the development of the young players because I have faith in the future. The present is still too uncertain.

Just my opinion.


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RichH
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Re: Expectations

Post by RichH » Sat Dec 26, 2020 2:02 pm

Dunno. So very young. A roller coaster season. Some superb games. A lot of games where we swing back and forth between Wow and WTF moments.
Still looking forward to see our guys. The frosh will be interesting.
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jimk72
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Re: Expectations

Post by jimk72 » Sun Dec 27, 2020 3:43 pm

With so little to go on its really tough to have any valid projections. But from someone who makes a very good living projecting college basketball, here's what Ken Pomeroy has, based on returning production:

1. Colgate, 2. Boston, 3. Navy, 4. Army, 5. Lafayette
6. Bucknell, 7. Loyola, 8. American, 9. Lehigh, 10. Holy Cross

Sounds kinda bleak. But I don't think Kenpom takes into account incoming talent. Losing Karnik obviously hurts, but presents a huge opportunity for growth for Li, Paroline, and Tan.

Based on what we saw late last year and my usual optimistic nature on the freshman, I can see us doing better than the Kentom projection. We struggle early (no nonconference warmup) against the more mature rosters, but end up 8-8 into the playoffs, assuming they happen. And by then we could be dangerous.

My ESPN+ subscription is warmed up and ready to roll for Saturday & Sunday against a very experienced, well coached batch of Leopards. Kenpom has us losing both games. Will Franny every retire and give us a break? (26 years and counting).....

And actually after checking, we've done pretty well lately versus Fran. We're now up 27-22 since he became head coach in 95-96. Going 7-1 in the last 4 years certainly helped. But historically they do lead the series just a bit (144-90). First game: Jan. 27, 1902.

Hopefully Lehigh65 will be back again this year with his much more qualified insights!!!
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jimk72
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Re: Expectations

Post by jimk72 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:33 pm

And now the official Patriot League pre-season Men's Basketball Coaches poll for 2020-2021:

1. Boston University, 148 points (10)
2. Colgate, 142 (8)
3. Loyola Maryland, 122 (1)
4. Navy, 114
5. Lafayette, 98 (1)
6. Bucknell, 77
7. Army West Point, 70
8. American, 63
9. Lehigh, 48
10. Holy Cross, 18

No real surprises. Almost identical to Pomeroy. After looking over the league rosters, American did have a noticeable addition. 6'9" 4 star Juco transfer (Christian Lorng) might be a difference maker for them this year. We'll find out more Saturday when they open at 1pm with Loyola just up the road in Baltimore.
Last edited by jimk72 on Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
TMH
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Re: Expectations

Post by TMH » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:40 pm

It will be interesting to see how fast Army and Navy get out of the gate given they each had a handful of quality non-conference games under their belt.

The good news here is that Lehigh does not have Army, Navy (which returns the bulk of their quality minutes from last year) nor projected leader Boston University on their schedule.

Only 4 more days.
Bison_137
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Re: Expectations

Post by Bison_137 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:31 pm

jimk72 wrote: Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:33 pm After looking over the league rosters, American did have a noticeable addition. 6'9" 4 star Juco transfer (Christian Lorng) might be a difference maker for them this year.

Note that Lorng's 4 star rating is from 3.5 years ago. At that time, he committed to Wake Forest, one of a number of offers, but couldn't make the academic cut and went the juco route. During his second juco year, it doesn't appear he had many offers. I couldn't find that he had any at a higher level than American. Just based on that, I imagine he will contribute but not be a serious difference maker.
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Re: Expectations

Post by Lehigh65 » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:33 pm

Game Notes
Come on, Schools! Where are they?

LC Season Preview
https://goleopards.com/news/2020/12/30/ ... eview.aspx


This ought to be interesting………
 Sixteen (16) league games in 51 days with half those encounters against either LC or Bucky and not one against either AWP, Navy or BU.
 Fourteen (14) young me (6 Fr / 5 So / 2 Jr / 1 Fr), with so little or no experience, going up against, what most fans would agree, is a more talented assembly of teams from around the PL.
 A truly wacky and disproportionate schedule of League games followed by what was an OOC schedule void of games for so many of us. Our friends at the military academies did, however, get in 4 preseason/OOC contests to test or hone their skills in preparation for what is about to kickoff this weekend. Each fared well, posting 3-1 records with notable wins and/or respectable losses. For instance, I give you Army’s set back by 7 to 22nd ranked, Florida and Navy’s 7-point wins over Georgetown and George Washington. Lop-sided, for sure. Heck, LU and LC don’t even play the same teams for comparison purposes. LC gets a look at BU and Navy while we see HC and CU. Neither of us host or visit Army. Our other opponents are the same, i.e., Bucky, LOM and AU.
 A League playoff that begins a full 12 days following the close of “Regular Season” play. We have been accustomed to seeing a much shorter break in play, e.g., 4-5 days.

Our Starting 5
Seems like a no-brainer but who knows what injuries may have occurred or how their play has measured-up in closed sessions to date. I’ll go with: Lynch, M. Wilson, J. Wilson, Fenton, and Taylor.

KenPom's
League and Lehigh Rankings on the eve of play.
Patriot League: 20th of 32
Lehigh: 291st of 351 teams and 9th in the 10 team PL. CU is projected to go 12-4 and nail down the top
spot.

KP’s Opening Weekend Projections
LU/LC: LC wins them both…by 1 away and by 6 at home
AU/LOM: AU wins by 2 at home and loses by 2 away
AWP/CU: CU wins them both…by 7 at home and by 2 away
NAVY/BUCKY: NAVY wins them both…by 6 at home and by 1 away
HC/BU: BU wins them both…by 15 at home and by 10 away
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RichH
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Re: Expectations

Post by RichH » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:20 pm

Game notes up.

Betlow is at PG with Fenton and MW. Lynch and JW up front.
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jimk72
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Re: Expectations

Post by jimk72 » Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:36 pm

You would think that makes Taylor the sixth man for this game. He could spell Fenton, or either Wilson.
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Re: Expectations

Post by jimk72 » Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:50 pm

Speaking of expectations for this season...down goes Loyola postponing their up coming four games......
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