Simulation of NCAA

Talk about the champions, or the Top 25 nationally-ranked team!
legger
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Re: Simulation of NCAA

Post by legger » Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:05 pm

**** I looked at the simulation over on The Mat.com. Really lost interest as many of the results "just didn't hold water" for me (Paetzell, Humphreys and others the results just did not make sense). There also are some real A-holes on that board. Anyway, the simulation has been giving wrestlestats.com a lot of credence. I don't usually agree with their projections. The site is a great place for history and looking at who has met who and what the results have been. However, I still have some problems with their algorithm. I have asked Angre a number of times what the algorithm looks at and what weighting is, but never get an answer. Anyway, I guess the simulation does serve some pursue to us Wrestling Starved Fans.


D3 for LU
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Ah, nutz!

Post by D3 for LU » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:27 pm

They just ran the simulation finals... and they didn't give the win to Kutler! :evil:
Hall gets the win by a 11-5 score.

Oh, well... :roll:
D3
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jdalu75
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Re: Simulation of NCAA

Post by jdalu75 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:02 pm

What a time to give up on upsets!
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legger
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Re: Simulation of NCAA

Post by legger » Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:49 am

**** Just a computer simulation, based upon an algorithm. I am reminded of a saying I first heard when I had my only Computer Programming course at UMD, (garbage in garbage out). It all depends on what parameters are loaded in to the algorithm and what weight each parameter was given. The algorithm probably looks at: w/l record and common opponents scores, which are good parameters, however, how to you put other sometimes just as important attributes into any model? Things like speed, adaptability, tenacity, will to win and style differences that can greatly influence outcomes. Anyway, I guess the simulation served its purpose, basically that the athletes and fans were deprived of real competition because of a national medical situation. Here is to hoping a praying that this does not get any worse and that remedies are found soon. Blessings to all.
lu_alum
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Re: Simulation of NCAA

Post by lu_alum » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:01 am

legger wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:05 pm **** I looked at the simulation over on The Mat.com. Really lost interest as many of the results "just didn't hold water" for me (Paetzell, Humphreys and others the results just did not make sense). There also are some real A-holes on that board. Anyway, the simulation has been giving wrestlestats.com a lot of credence. I don't usually agree with their projections. The site is a great place for history and looking at who has met who and what the results have been. However, I still have some problems with their algorithm. I have asked Angre a number of times what the algorithm looks at and what weighting is, but never get an answer. Anyway, I guess the simulation does serve some pursue to us Wrestling Starved Fans.
TheMat.com had nothing to do w the simulation. It was displayed on TrackWrestling, and was the result of of a computer model. Folks on TheMat were just commenting on the simulation.

Agree that some results don’t hold water. I wouldn’t think Paetzell goes two-and-BBQ.
Oracle
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Re: Simulation of NCAA

Post by Oracle » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:59 am

Track Wrestling is to commended for attempting to maintain fan interest. However, the results were almost completely bogus. Yes, there are usually 2-3 very high seeds that get upset every year, but 3-4 in every weight class?
Snooze fest after seeing that.
mookie
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Re: Simulation of NCAA

Post by mookie » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:19 am

legger
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Re: Simulation of NCAA

Post by legger » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:19 pm

LU Alum said: "TheMat.com had nothing to do w the simulation. It was displayed on TrackWrestling, and was the result of of a computer model. Folks on TheMat were just commenting on the simulation.

Agree that some results don’t hold water. I wouldn’t think Paetzell goes two-and-BBQ".

**** I did not say The Mat had anything to do with the simulation, I said that is where I saw comments. I agree no way Paetzell 2 and BBQ, or Weiler out so easy.

Oracle said: "Track Wrestling is to commended for attempting to maintain fan interest. However, the results were almost completely bogus. Yes, there are usually 2-3 very high seeds that get upset every year, but 3-4 in every weight class?
Snooze fest after seeing that".

**** I agree, many of the results of the simulation, were extremely suspect, (too numerous to list). I think the simulators depended a lot on Wrestlestats, which has very good data sets for history of potential wrestlers, but like I have said previously, what their algorithm puts out is dependent of what parameters are put in (garbage in garbate out) and what weight each parameter is given. Way too many intangibles to be able to adequately cover all basis of any potential match ups.
Still congrats to Track for trying, but Wrestlestats misses almost as much as it hits. Just one persons' opinion.

Mookie put up a link to a simulated Marciano/Ali fight, (Thanks Dave), which is actually very entertaining, with the result being Marciano knocking out Ali in the 12th round. Again, very entertaining, but I do not think Marciano would have been able to knock out Ali (if both were in their prime). Ali took all Frazier and Foreman could dish out and Marciano was really strong but he did not hit any harder than those two. Again just one man's opinion.
mookie
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Re: Simulation of NCAA

Post by mookie » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:36 pm

Agree with Legger on all counts particularly Ali vs. Marciano. About a month ago I was having dinner in the area and in walks Larry Holmes. His hands were as big as a catcher's mitt. Told him I wanted a piece of him out in the parking lot but he declined my invitation.
Oracle
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Re: Simulation of NCAA

Post by Oracle » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:44 pm

I wonder how many times he's been asked that? I think Flossy could handle you.
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