Columbia-Navy Predictions

Talk about the champions, or the Top 25 nationally-ranked team!
jdalu75
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by jdalu75 » Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:59 am

JAD77 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:11 pm Josh Ogunsanya - if he is anything like his brother PJ, he will be one tough customer.
I haven't seen Josh wrestle yet; seems to me that I read something a few weeks ago that suggested their styles are very different. But he's a tough customer right now.


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LU in the Hub
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by LU in the Hub » Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:57 am

JAD77 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:07 pm Not sure what you were looking at on Wrestlestat, but Malyke is ranked 13th, Manzona is ranked 28th, Humphreys is ranked 5th, Meyer is ranked 27th, Logan 28th, Burkhart 31st, and Wood 4th. Of course, these are starters rankings vs the rankings of all wrestlers, but yours still seem way off. Maybe looking at an archived page?
Regardless, that is a lot of work you put in there, and the wins rankings vs losses rankings is an interesting comparison.
Every time wrestlestat runs its ranking algorithm all these ratings change, really radically it seems in the early season. Burkhart was at #80 a couple of days ago when I copied these down during a work break.

Since then they crunched the numbers. It's probably less volatile later in the season. I believe they use the same algorithm that's used to rank chess players. I only know a couple of wrestlers on Columbia's team so I figured looking at WS was better than nothing. Maybe not much, though...

I'm going full homer in my pick: Lehigh 29 - Columbia 6. I think Jimmy and Eli get it done if they're wrestling...
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by TMH » Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:20 am

What a difference one match can make.

It's interesting to watch the differences in objectivity (algorithms) vs subjectivity (flo, IM) in the rankings.
It is only a snapshot which will likely change this weekend but both Lehigh and Cornell are ranked #19 as a team.
I wonder where WS would rank us if not for the debacle v Campbell in the 1st match.
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by jdalu75 » Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:25 am

Let's see if I can add anything to LU in the Hub's Columbia research. BTW, Wrestlestat updates their rankings frequently, not just once a week. Their full rankings include redshirting wrestlers and non-starters. So Hines is #13 in the starters' ranking but (as of a few minutes ago) #19 overall (Carter Bailey is #12, Paetzell #13).

125:
Joe Manchio (#27, 4-2) - 3rd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter all 3 years.
Wins: #78, #23
Losses: #37, #37
I have Manchio at 5-2. He won the Southeast Open (beat VT's Latona in the finals); losses are both to Michigan's Jack Medley. Has twice outperformed his seed at EIWAs -- 10th, finished 5th as a freshman; 7th, finished 2nd as a soph.

133:
Angelo Rini (#25, 10-1) - 2nd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter both years.
Wins: #43, #78
Losses: #120
I have Rini at 8-1 (counting only bouts that will appear on ISRF forms). He won the Binghamton Open while not in school; won the George Mason Open after re-enrolling. Loss is to Bucknell's Dylan Chappell at the F&M Open. Seeded 8th, finished 7th at EIWAs two years ago.

141:
Matt Kazimir (#19, 10-1) - 3rd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter all 3 years.
Wins: #16, #45, #26
Losses: #28
8-1, won the Southeast Open while not in school (beat VT's Collin Gerardi in the finals), won the George Mason Open after re-enrolling (beat Penn's CJ Composto in the finals). Loss is to Gabe Willochell at the F&M Open. Seeded 3rd, finished 2nd at EIWAs two years ago.

149:
Danny Fongaro (#111, 11-6) - 3rd. year (plus 1 year RTC). 3 year starter.
Wins: #46
Losses: #68, #22, #101, #24, #76, #137
11-4, losses to Bucknell's Kolby DePron, Michigan's Kanen Storr, AWP's Ogunsanya, AF's Dylan Martinez. Unseeded, DNP at EIWAs three years ago.

157:
Kyle Mosher (#42, 4-4) - 2nd. year + 1 year RTC. 2 year starter.
Wins: #37
Losses: #16, #1, #13, #26
4-4, wrestled in the Michigan dual, last action was at Vega$. Seeded 5th, DNP at EIWAs two years ago. I suspect that we see Andrew Garr, 6-0, 1st at the GM Open, wrestled twice against LIU (dual and extra bout). 4th at the Southeast Open while he wasn't in school, loss 14-8 to Quincy Monday, beat VT's Jake Hart 3-2. DNP at EIWAs two years ago.

165:
Josh Ogunsanya (#16, 8-3) - 2nd. year. 1st. year starter after non-compete covid year.
Wins: #56, #34, #61, #73, #78, #71
Losses: #5, #4, #11
6-3, 1st at the Southeast Open, 7th at Vega$, 1-1 in duals. Losses to Cam Amine, Shane Griffith, and Julian Ramirez.

174:
Nick Fine (#96, 13-5) - 1st. year starter.
Wins: #34
Losses: #40, #68, #80, #39, #62
11-3, true freshman, 6th at the Southeast Open, 4th at Binghamton, 6th at F&M (beat AWP's Pasiuk 5-4). If he's healthy we'll probably see Lennox Wolak, 4-1, who pinned Fine at the Southeast Open, won one bout at the GM Open and then med forfeited. DNP at EIWAs two years ago.

184:
Brian Bonino (#94, 2-4) - 4th. year + 1 year RTC. 3 year starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #29, #88, #8, #55
2-4, one win by med forfeit. 8th at EIWAs three years ago.

197:
Joe Franzese (#100, 1-4) - 4th. year. 3 year starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #41, #62, #12, #30
2-5, DNP at EIWAs two years ago. We could also see Sam Wustefeld, 3rd at the Southeast Open while not enrolled in school, twice EIWA DNP.

285:
Daniel Conley (#120, 8-9) - 4th. year. 2nd. year as starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #23, #51, #12, #29, #115, #23, #20, #115, #34
7-9, DNP in four tournaments, 1-1 in duals, DNP at EIWAs two years ago.
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by jdalu75 » Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:30 am

LU in the Hub wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:57 am
Every time wrestlestat runs its ranking algorithm all these ratings change, really radically it seems in the early season.
Seymour jumped from 105 to 43 after the Matmen Open; Bailey 47 to 11; Taylor 45 to 31. Guys with limited bout results can make a huge move based on one weekend.
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by TMH » Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:38 am

whiz wit wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:26 am Navy has listed alternates as probable starters at every weight. They even have three "probables", including Ryan Catka, at heavyweight. Not letting the cat out of the bag.
Speaking of Catka, Nathan Taylor who has already wrestled 33 matches this year and it's only the middle of January (23-10) has wrestled Catka 4 times this year. (3-1). I suspect he can provide Wood with a pretty good scouting report if they match up.
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by TMH » Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:43 am

jdalu75 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:30 am
LU in the Hub wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:57 am
Every time wrestlestat runs its ranking algorithm all these ratings change, really radically it seems in the early season.
Seymour jumped from 105 to 43 after the Matmen Open; Bailey 47 to 11; Taylor 45 to 31. Guys with limited bout results can make a huge move based on one weekend.
I wonder how many layers of the onion wrestlestats peels back. Sagarin used to do 3. Rankings were then based on you you won or lost to and then who they won or lost to and then who they won or lost to. Based on that, every time Foca or Loew beats a quality opponent (and they will) Logan and Burkhart's rankings get better.


Not that it really means anything.
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by LU in the Hub » Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:45 am

I feel like I know the Navy starters a little better than Columbia, but a couple of new match-ups look really intriguing.

First year Josh Koderhandt is having an excellent start to his career. He has a lot of quality wins and no bad losses. This should be significant for Hines vis a vis EIWA seeding.

Val Park I had already checked out after he beat Thayne Lawrence 7-0 in a recent open. Another good young wrestler for Kolat.

Jacob Allen, Koser, Key and Cerniglia we've seen, and they're all hard-nosed opponents. Burkhart vs Key should be a good one.
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by whiz wit » Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:55 am

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a replacement for Cerniglia. He med forfeited at F & M a couple weeks ago. Looked like a knee. And it would be a tall order to go against Humphreys coming back from an injury.
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by gimpeltf » Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:16 pm

Slow day today?
jdalu75 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:25 am Let's see if I can add anything to LU in the Hub's Columbia research. BTW, Wrestlestat updates their rankings frequently, not just once a week. Their full rankings include redshirting wrestlers and non-starters. So Hines is #13 in the starters' ranking but (as of a few minutes ago) #19 overall (Carter Bailey is #12, Paetzell #13).

125:
Joe Manchio (#27, 4-2) - 3rd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter all 3 years.
Wins: #78, #23
Losses: #37, #37
I have Manchio at 5-2. He won the Southeast Open (beat VT's Latona in the finals); losses are both to Michigan's Jack Medley. Has twice outperformed his seed at EIWAs -- 10th, finished 5th as a freshman; 7th, finished 2nd as a soph.

133:
Angelo Rini (#25, 10-1) - 2nd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter both years.
Wins: #43, #78
Losses: #120
I have Rini at 8-1 (counting only bouts that will appear on ISRF forms). He won the Binghamton Open while not in school; won the George Mason Open after re-enrolling. Loss is to Bucknell's Dylan Chappell at the F&M Open. Seeded 8th, finished 7th at EIWAs two years ago.

141:
Matt Kazimir (#19, 10-1) - 3rd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter all 3 years.
Wins: #16, #45, #26
Losses: #28
8-1, won the Southeast Open while not in school (beat VT's Collin Gerardi in the finals), won the George Mason Open after re-enrolling (beat Penn's CJ Composto in the finals). Loss is to Gabe Willochell at the F&M Open. Seeded 3rd, finished 2nd at EIWAs two years ago.

149:
Danny Fongaro (#111, 11-6) - 3rd. year (plus 1 year RTC). 3 year starter.
Wins: #46
Losses: #68, #22, #101, #24, #76, #137
11-4, losses to Bucknell's Kolby DePron, Michigan's Kanen Storr, AWP's Ogunsanya, AF's Dylan Martinez. Unseeded, DNP at EIWAs three years ago.

157:
Kyle Mosher (#42, 4-4) - 2nd. year + 1 year RTC. 2 year starter.
Wins: #37
Losses: #16, #1, #13, #26
4-4, wrestled in the Michigan dual, last action was at Vega$. Seeded 5th, DNP at EIWAs two years ago. I suspect that we see Andrew Garr, 6-0, 1st at the GM Open, wrestled twice against LIU (dual and extra bout). 4th at the Southeast Open while he wasn't in school, loss 14-8 to Quincy Monday, beat VT's Jake Hart 3-2. DNP at EIWAs two years ago.

165:
Josh Ogunsanya (#16, 8-3) - 2nd. year. 1st. year starter after non-compete covid year.
Wins: #56, #34, #61, #73, #78, #71
Losses: #5, #4, #11
6-3, 1st at the Southeast Open, 7th at Vega$, 1-1 in duals. Losses to Cam Amine, Shane Griffith, and Julian Ramirez.

174:
Nick Fine (#96, 13-5) - 1st. year starter.
Wins: #34
Losses: #40, #68, #80, #39, #62
11-3, true freshman, 6th at the Southeast Open, 4th at Binghamton, 6th at F&M (beat AWP's Pasiuk 5-4). If he's healthy we'll probably see Lennox Wolak, 4-1, who pinned Fine at the Southeast Open, won one bout at the GM Open and then med forfeited. DNP at EIWAs two years ago.

184:
Brian Bonino (#94, 2-4) - 4th. year + 1 year RTC. 3 year starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #29, #88, #8, #55
2-4, one win by med forfeit. 8th at EIWAs three years ago.

197:
Joe Franzese (#100, 1-4) - 4th. year. 3 year starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #41, #62, #12, #30
2-5, DNP at EIWAs two years ago. We could also see Sam Wustefeld, 3rd at the Southeast Open while not enrolled in school, twice EIWA DNP.

285:
Daniel Conley (#120, 8-9) - 4th. year. 2nd. year as starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #23, #51, #12, #29, #115, #23, #20, #115, #34
7-9, DNP in four tournaments, 1-1 in duals, DNP at EIWAs two years ago.
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