Columbia-Navy Predictions

Talk about the champions, or the Top 25 nationally-ranked team!
Oracle
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Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by Oracle » Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:38 pm

Tomorrow Columbia followed by Navy on Saturday afternoon. Same format as this past weekend.

Columbia has good talent at 125,133 and 141 -- Lehigh actually matches up well with our own 1-2-3 lead-off trio. If it starts at 125 fans don't want to be late. Going into 149 could be any combination of team score. Manchio #20- Lane #15, Rini NR-Hines #19, Kazimir #19-McGonagle NR. That's about as even (on paper) as it gets.
Columbia has a decent guy at 157 (Moser if healthy) but we have our stud. Ogunsanya #22- Meyer #25. They have a trending wrestler at 174 in Fine NR - Logan #33. At 184 Bonino NR is decent - Burkhart NR. 197 wjo knows? 285: Wood is our other stud. 5-6 toss-up bouts: 125, 133, 141, 165, 174, 184. Classic 'trap match' but says here Lehigh wins 7 bouts.

Navy is balanced. Jacob Allen back down to 125 has improved his performance. The plebe at 133 Koderhandt is very tough. Val Park at 165 is a 3X Okla state champ and real good on top. Key at 184 is tough. If Koser goes -- he's favored. There will be no repeat of last year's loss. Lehigh takes 7 bouts.

These predictions are based on no illness or injury.


TMH
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by TMH » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:05 pm

Of course, anything can happen but Bonino is 2-4 (after removing the medff). His only 2 wins were against LIU and his backup at Columbia. None of his losses were by less than 6 points. If Burkhart is anywhere near as advertised lately, this shouldn't be a tossup IMO.
Oracle
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by Oracle » Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:34 pm

Yeah, I wasn't sure about that weight either which is why I said 5-6.
Bonino was NJ 3rd as a senior at 195 so he'll be a full-sized 184. Like I said, he's decent. He's lost to Hunter Bolen, VATech 7-1 and Jelani Embree, Michigan 10-2. Those guys are pretty good.

IMO Burkhart still has something to prove. Sammy DePrez is not really a D1 wrestler. Loew was very good, but A J still isn't over .500 yet is he? If he looks past a guy like Bonino -- with his record -- he's looking for trouble.
LU in the Hub
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by LU in the Hub » Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:05 pm

Tough one to handicap, since we don't know who Lehigh is going to put out there. We're hoping to get Manzona and JT Davis back, but it might be Jimmy and Eli, who both have a good chance to win their match-ups.

During a break this week I looked up the records for both teams on Wrestlestat (so take the ranking value with a grain of salt). To try to normalize the difference in early season schedules I filtered out wins over wrestlers > #80. (Again, these are Wrestlestat rankings following the pound sign).

Agreeing with John Henning that Columbia is really strong at the 1st. 3 weights. Also, the Lions have good young Freshmen at 165 and 174, so those matches should be intense. Lehigh has opportunities for BPs at some of the other weights and in general, I like the way Lehigh is wrestling right now.

125:
Jaret Lane (#15, 8-3) - 4th. year, 2nd. year starting.
Wins: #52, #65, #24, #53, #20
Losses: #4, #16, #1

Joe Manchio (#27, 4-2) - 3rd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter all 3 years.
Wins: #78, #23
Losses: #37, #37

133:
Malyke Hines (#21, 5-3) - 3rd. year, 2nd. year as starter after RS.
Wins: #54, #31, #6
Losses: #19, #30, #36

Angelo Rini (#25, 10-1) - 2nd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter both years.
Wins: #43, #78
Losses: #120

141:
Connor McGonagle (#34, 3-3) - 3rd. year, 2nd. year as starter after RS.
Wins: #11, #71
Losses: #8, #2, #1

Matt Kazimir (#19, 10-1) - 3rd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter all 3 years.
Wins: #16, #45, #26
Losses: #28

149:
Manzona Bryant (#36, 5-5) - 2nd. year. 1st. year as starter after RS.
Wins: #20, #23, #60
Losses: #26, #50, #57, #50, #57

Danny Fongaro (#111, 11-6) - 3rd. year (plus 1 year RTC). 3 year starter.
Wins: #46
Losses: #68, #22, #101, #24, #76, #137

157:
Josh Humphrey (#6, 10-1) - 3rd. year with covid year off. 3 year starter.
Wins: #10, #14, #17, #31, #51, #29. #24
Losses: #22

Kyle Mosher (#42, 4-4) - 2nd. year + 1 year RTC. 2 year starter.
Wins: #37
Losses: #16, #1, #13, #26

165:
Brian Meyer (#31, 8-5) - 4th. year. 3 year starter after RS.
Wins: #64, #45, #12, #65, #29, #27, #65
Losses: #5, #3, #1, #41, #66

Josh Ogunsanya (#16, 8-3) - 2nd. year. 1st. year starter after non-compete covid year.
Wins: #56, #34, #61, #73, #78, #71
Losses: #5, #4, #11

174:
Jake Logan (#50, 6-7) - 3rd. year. 2 year starter after RS.
Wins: #14, #77, #34
Losses: #80, #9, #17, #4, #56, #47, #23

Nick Fine (#96, 13-5) - 1st. year starter.
Wins: #34
Losses: #40, #68, #80, #39, #62

184:
AJ Burkhart (#80, 6-7) 4th. year. 1st. year starter. Had RS year.
Wins: #14, #61, #12
Losses: #19, #12, #52, #28, #88, #50, #37

Brian Bonino (#94, 2-4) - 4th. year + 1 year RTC. 3 year starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #29, #88, #8, #55

197:
JT Davis (#71, 4-7) - 2nd. year. 1st. year starter.
Wins: #61
Losses: #3, #11, #2, #4, #7, #55, #48

Joe Franzese (#100, 1-4) - 4th. year. 3 year starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #41, #62, #12, #30

285:
Jordan Wood (#6, 9-1) - 6th. year. 5th. year as starter after RS.
Wins: #20, #35, #15, #5, #52, #21, #5, #21
Losses: #3

Daniel Conley (#120, 8-9) - 4th. year. 2nd. year as starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #23, #51, #12, #29, #115, #23, #20, #115, #34
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by TMH » Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:25 pm

I may have missed it but does anyone know of the status of Cerniglia (Navy) for this weekend.

He was having a really good season but I noticed that he was injured in the David Lehman Open last weekend. It would be a homecoming for him and his bout with Humphreys alone may be worth the price of admission.
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by JAD77 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:07 pm

LU in the Hub wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:05 pm Tough one to handicap, since we don't know who Lehigh is going to put out there. We're hoping to get Manzona and JT Davis back, but it might be Jimmy and Eli, who both have a good chance to win their match-ups.

During a break this week I looked up the records for both teams on Wrestlestat (so take the ranking value with a grain of salt). To try to normalize the difference in early season schedules I filtered out wins over wrestlers > #80. (Again, these are Wrestlestat rankings following the pound sign).

Agreeing with John Henning that Columbia is really strong at the 1st. 3 weights. Also, the Lions have good young Freshmen at 165 and 174, so those matches should be intense. Lehigh has opportunities for BPs at some of the other weights and in general, I like the way Lehigh is wrestling right now.

125:
Jaret Lane (#15, 8-3) - 4th. year, 2nd. year starting.
Wins: #52, #65, #24, #53, #20
Losses: #4, #16, #1

Joe Manchio (#27, 4-2) - 3rd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter all 3 years.
Wins: #78, #23
Losses: #37, #37

133:
Malyke Hines (#21, 5-3) - 3rd. year, 2nd. year as starter after RS.
Wins: #54, #31, #6
Losses: #19, #30, #36

Angelo Rini (#25, 10-1) - 2nd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter both years.
Wins: #43, #78
Losses: #120

141:
Connor McGonagle (#34, 3-3) - 3rd. year, 2nd. year as starter after RS.
Wins: #11, #71
Losses: #8, #2, #1

Matt Kazimir (#19, 10-1) - 3rd. year (plus covid year at RTC). Starter all 3 years.
Wins: #16, #45, #26
Losses: #28

149:
Manzona Bryant (#36, 5-5) - 2nd. year. 1st. year as starter after RS.
Wins: #20, #23, #60
Losses: #26, #50, #57, #50, #57

Danny Fongaro (#111, 11-6) - 3rd. year (plus 1 year RTC). 3 year starter.
Wins: #46
Losses: #68, #22, #101, #24, #76, #137

157:
Josh Humphrey (#6, 10-1) - 3rd. year with covid year off. 3 year starter.
Wins: #10, #14, #17, #31, #51, #29. #24
Losses: #22

Kyle Mosher (#42, 4-4) - 2nd. year + 1 year RTC. 2 year starter.
Wins: #37
Losses: #16, #1, #13, #26

165:
Brian Meyer (#31, 8-5) - 4th. year. 3 year starter after RS.
Wins: #64, #45, #12, #65, #29, #27, #65
Losses: #5, #3, #1, #41, #66

Josh Ogunsanya (#16, 8-3) - 2nd. year. 1st. year starter after non-compete covid year.
Wins: #56, #34, #61, #73, #78, #71
Losses: #5, #4, #11

174:
Jake Logan (#50, 6-7) - 3rd. year. 2 year starter after RS.
Wins: #14, #77, #34
Losses: #80, #9, #17, #4, #56, #47, #23

Nick Fine (#96, 13-5) - 1st. year starter.
Wins: #34
Losses: #40, #68, #80, #39, #62

184:
AJ Burkhart (#80, 6-7) 4th. year. 1st. year starter. Had RS year.
Wins: #14, #61, #12
Losses: #19, #12, #52, #28, #88, #50, #37

Brian Bonino (#94, 2-4) - 4th. year + 1 year RTC. 3 year starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #29, #88, #8, #55

197:
JT Davis (#71, 4-7) - 2nd. year. 1st. year starter.
Wins: #61
Losses: #3, #11, #2, #4, #7, #55, #48

Joe Franzese (#100, 1-4) - 4th. year. 3 year starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #41, #62, #12, #30

285:
Jordan Wood (#6, 9-1) - 6th. year. 5th. year as starter after RS.
Wins: #20, #35, #15, #5, #52, #21, #5, #21
Losses: #3

Daniel Conley (#120, 8-9) - 4th. year. 2nd. year as starter.
Wins: none
Losses: #23, #51, #12, #29, #115, #23, #20, #115, #34
Not sure what you were looking at on Wrestlestat, but Malyke is ranked 13th, Manzona is ranked 28th, Humphreys is ranked 5th, Meyer is ranked 27th, Logan 28th, Burkhart 31st, and Wood 4th. Of course, these are starters rankings vs the rankings of all wrestlers, but yours still seem way off. Maybe looking at an archived page?
Regardless, that is a lot of work you put in there, and the wins rankings vs losses rankings is an interesting comparison.
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by JAD77 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:11 pm

Josh Ogunsanya - if he is anything like his brother PJ, he will be one tough customer.
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by D3 for LU » Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:53 pm

If anything, I would like to see Lane take it to Manchio.
(To even things out of what Manchio did to Paetzel in the QF at the 2020 EIWA's... spladle city.
Man that was twisted! :evil: )
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by Spladle1989 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:10 pm

Lehigh 25. Columbia 6

Lehigh 21 Navy 12

Put it on the bulletin board and dare the opposition to do better…..the good ones fear nobody
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Re: Columbia-Navy Predictions

Post by whiz wit » Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:26 am

Navy has listed alternates as probable starters at every weight. They even have three "probables", including Ryan Catka, at heavyweight. Not letting the cat out of the bag.
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