Transfer Portal Best Options

Talk about the champions, or the Top 25 nationally-ranked team!
drd5748
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Re: Transfer Portal Best Options

Post by drd5748 » Tue Apr 26, 2022 12:43 pm

Of course, Bill Parcells couldn't wait 3-5 yrs for a draft pick to develop.

Yeah, I prefer all Trenge/Letters blue chips - and all Robt Hamlin dark horses. I try to respect every kid for who he is and how fast he actually develops. He's not an auto motor or plug-and-play robot. And I know fans don't care about Covid concerns but it's been validated as a widely disparate impact on different programs. Athletes pro & college are still getting it. We'd all be complaining less with more wins. Nothing succeeds like success. Try not re-stating too much obvious.


whiz wit
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Re: Transfer Portal Best Options

Post by whiz wit » Tue Apr 26, 2022 2:58 pm

Blue chip = top 2 in weight class in graduating class (under normal circumstances)
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Re: Transfer Portal Best Options

Post by drd5748 » Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:38 pm

>>>>>>>Blue chip = top 2 in weight class in graduating class (under normal circumstances)

Whewww .... thank GOD Trenge barely made the cut, as #2 at 189 behind Hahn.

Am pretty sure whiz doesn't realize how few of our recruits were ever Top 2 at their sr wt class. #42 Zach Rey was 3rd, hwt, behind PSU's Wade by a hair; the Lion never placed so presumably ostracized by Lion fans for his two Rd12 proving he wasn't suitable for Div I.

Burley definitely wasn't ranked Top 50 as hs sr; Mike Lieberman never placed at National Preps; was a 3x NJ Independent States 2nd... and 3 yrs in at Lehigh he was 20-14-1; EIWA 5 & dnp, remembered only for tripping going off the mat in 2nd straight loss to Brenneman, PSU's EIWA 1,2; T.Sculley as soph lost 18-5 and 13-0 to EIWA 1st Medina, PSU. Rey, MikeLiebs, Sculley placed 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3 career; the PSU guys never placed ncaa.

So how were they rated as recruits? Sculs was 'just' a Catholic school champ; poor on his feet; solid D only his last 2 seasons. Lieberman had no rtg until kid brother jacked him up to Top 4 then beating Chris Campbell. Rey came within 0:06 of 4x A/A but fans used to whine a ton halfway thru about his frequent o.t.'s and close bouts.

Thirty yrs after the fact, Lieberman half-quipped, half-apologized: "Yeah, I was the one who tripped over the end line vs Brenneman and lost." Wasn't funny at all when it happened. Good thing there were no online boards.
You get funny stuff like that when you take the time to talk to guys vs. sending up anonymous drone posts.
whiz wit
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Re: Transfer Portal Best Options

Post by whiz wit » Tue Apr 26, 2022 4:50 pm

Ok Denny. Now you tell us your criteria for a blue chip recruit. And if you want to base them upon D1 results, make sure you take into consideration the universe of LU recruiting and results at least for the last few decades and don't just cherry pick the stats that support your opinion, as is your custom. Oh, and do the same universal analysis for my model and then we'll see which would be more reliable. I know you love working with statistics so this analysis should be no burden for you.

And by the way, I haven't forgotten the bet we made at the beginning of the season as to where LU would wind up at the Nationals. You owe me a Greeker but I'll offer you a double or nothing on the present competition.
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Re: Transfer Portal Best Options

Post by drd5748 » Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:00 pm

>>>Ok Denny. Now you tell us your criteria for a blue chip recruit. And if you want to base them upon D1 results, make sure you take into consideration the universe of LU recruiting and results at least for the last few decades and don't just cherry pick the stats that support your opinion, as is your custom. Oh, and do the same universal analysis for my model and then we'll see which would be more reliable. I know you love working with statistics so this analysis should be no burden for you.>>>

... If I were a trained seal, I'd bark loudly if you ask nicely, as you have here.

...A blue chip *recruit* for us is usually one ranked Top 40 or so from a solid state. Humphreys never really cracked Top 50 and was from WV, so we didn't know how good he was -- until he fried some rivals in Nov; by post-season he was suddenly "1 of our best recruits in years."

...Counting last decade only, most agree on who were blue chip Top 30-40 *coming out of HS* under Pat: Bryant, Garcia, Wood, Lawrence (top 40 sr), Kutler, Weiler, Beckham, Karam, Weiler, Rey, Milonas, both Cruzes, Vollaro, Griffin, Minotti, Cagnina, Meys, Napoli, maybe even Hess.
As all] know, Top 30 doesn't guarantee squat and we have 6 A/As (17 medals) from the above 16 grads. What happened medically to Meys, Milonas, Hess was ungodly - our 1st-ever career DQs for a concussion, a cancer, a case of Guillain-Barre (amended to far more severe Chronic Relapse). I add Vollaro to the list, with two brutal injuries - a severe leg break and a total knee destruction for EIWA 3rd. He described the total damages to me at the post-tourney event and I literally couldn't finish my dinner. He returned from both crises.

BTW, who's the last Forum fan to ask me how Austin is doing with that lifetime medical issue? (no one since he graduated). His former wrestler dad, John, calls me every year to chat and update me on Austin's treatments, relapses, his career & love life (Austin married several yrs into a very solid family) among many ramblings. When I first met John, he thanked me for running roughshod over "those Forum whiners." Fact. Coach Hughes told me I'd enjoy meeting him. If I grandstand at times about parents, John phoned me every day that Austin was hospitalized (5 days), scared he wouldn't make it. I cried each time, but only after hanging up.

As fans we don't to get to decide who excels, who doesn't. Anyone can figure out who: if not why not; certainly when -- but it will forever irritate me when fans post self-satisfying public dismissals of kids before they finish. It bothered me when G.Leeman said something harsh, but it was private 1-on-1 room talk. The kid then finished by medaling at ncaas to help set our all-time 6-medal total. I never said a word about it to Germ. He once told me one ncaa champion was a big disappointment. He was clearly coming from a different place than us mortals.

WHIZ CATCHES ME OFF-GUARD>>> I haven't forgotten the bet we made at the beginning of the season on where LU would wind up at Nationals. You owe me a Greeker but I'll offer you a double or nothing on the present competition>>

A bet's a bet and your younger man memory is 3x better than mine, since I rarely bet (Ron Good, AWN).
So I'll cough up 2 dogs next Fall, then we can bet on '23 (no public predictions for me). My early years in the Alumni Office, Director Jim Niemeyer '43 and I went to lunch there a lot. Every single time he'd order "1 with everything; 1 just mustard & onions." I mirrored him for awhile, but finally realized the sauce made it a Greeker
Look forward to it. drd
whiz wit
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Re: Transfer Portal Best Options

Post by whiz wit » Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:11 am

Top 30-40 and from a solid state are reasonable criteria. I first thought of going with top 50 since I believe somebody else on the forum had mentioned top 100 - which seems too liberal to me. But I think it more probative to compare apples to apples where there probably have been some head to heads or at least recent common opponents than trying to judge whether a particular 182 is better than a particular 133. So I prefer weight class rankings to overall rankings.

Then I decided that to be "blue chip" one should have what I would call presumptive rank based AA potential. If you're one of the top two kids in a weight class and there are four classes then you're top 8 (as far as high school ranking goes) among your competition. Of course this "presumption" is flawed for a number of reasons but, as the current fudge factor saying goes, "It is what it is."

Guys keep tossing the term "blue chip" out without defining it and I'm sure there are different views. Maybe some others on the forum will stick their necks out with their criteria.
mookie
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Re: Transfer Portal Best Options

Post by mookie » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:24 am

From: Mr. Dom Demas

“Excited to announce that I will be continuing my athletic career and getting my masters in business analytics at Cal Poly!”
drd5748
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Re: Transfer Portal Best Options

Post by drd5748 » Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:17 pm

>>> I first thought of going with top 50 since I believe somebody else on the forum had mentioned top 100 - which seems too liberal to me. But I think it more probative to compare apples to apples where there probably have been some head to heads or at least recent common opponents than trying to judge whether a particular 182 is better than a particular 133. So I prefer weight class rankings to overall rankings.>>>>

Yep. And we can all overthink or over-evaluate. WIth the nuclear proliferation of HS rtgs it's 3x easier to be ranked Top 100, especially with some polls publishing monthly; others 2-4/year. Lane, Hoffman, Moran all ranked 90-100 in some polls, not others (Jaret & I analyzed how many Top 100's left in, who he later beat .... between 8-10.

Austin Meys was #9 entering hs sr yr - then lost 5-4 in freestyle at Fargo to a Top 50 (who went to Iowa; Lofthouse?). Austin plummeted toward #80-90 -- but was injured or ill for the *freestyle* loss. Incredibly dominant NY career. Joe Napoli finished Top 10 as sr with one terrific upset; just as he got seeded #3 as LU sr mostly on big PSU upset.

Agree that Top 50 better than 100 - also agree that pct of blue chips succeeding isn't failsafe

I just checked a 10-yr span (2009-2018) for Top 40s recruits for LU, Corn
45% of CU's Top 40s medaled vs 50% for us. But bouyed by all need-based Ivy allure (see O's "9.9 is for suckers"), they landed 2x as many kids ... in earlier eras we had #1 Craig at Rd12 only ....they got 1 (2?) Rd12 out of M.Gray, Peppelman, Cisneros who left very early to aim for millions making clothes.

Like itself, recruiting and success of recruits is often a crap shoot. Just pls try not using the phrase too loosely
These are flesh-and-blood athletes fun to get to know.
whiz wit
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Re: Transfer Portal Best Options

Post by whiz wit » Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:12 pm

DRD, does your 50% AAs for LU from top 40s include all top 40s or does it exclude those like Milonas, Meyes, Hess whose wrestling careers didn't get much off the ground on account of illness/injury?
mookie
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Re: Transfer Portal Best Options

Post by mookie » Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:12 pm

Gerrit Nijenhuis just committed to Oklahoma. Sooners loading up on quality transfers.
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